Synopsis: Researchers will develop a multi-media model of chemical fate and exposure within the basin. Among other things, this model will be applicable as a screening tool for chemicals of emerging concern to identify potential high-risk compounds. The region’s air, water, soils, sediments, food chains and other media will be modeled as part of an integrated system. The model will be suitable for modeling organic chemicals with a wide range of parameters.

Chemicals Studied: The model will be broadly applicable to those chemicals that can be modeled with a fugacity-type approach. This includes most organic chemicals, but excludes most metals. While applicable to well-studied chemicals, the screening-level model will be particularly applicable to chemicals of emerging concern, for which there is limited physio-chemical or environmental information available.

Geographic Areas: The geography modeled will be representative of the entire Great Lakes basin, making the model broadly applicable throughout the region

Project Duration: The project will begin in the Spring of 2006 and will conclude in the Summer of 2008.

Methods Used: A multi-compartmental model of the Great Lakes basin (GLMOD) will be created for application in determining the transport, fate and exposure of chemicals within the region. The model will contain numerous compartments for air, water, soils, sediments and biota, each segmented to represent the geography of the Great Lakes region. This multi-media model will be used to inform a multi-media risk assessment model, taking account of common chemical exposure pathways within the basin. The resulting model will be applied to PCBs, a well studied compound to assess its validity and accuracy and then applied to a group of chemicals of emerging concern to make predictions regarding the transport and exposure of these chemicals.

Potential Results and Implications: The need for a model of this type within the region is significant. In addition to application to well-studied chemicals, the ability to predict exposures of newly recognized chemical risks has been a well recognized need, including by the Great Lakes Regional Collaboration’s Toxic Pollutant Strategy Team. Developing the ability to model chemical exposures will improve the ability to screen chemicals and identify risks earlier and therefore avoid pollution-related health risks.

Project Contact:
Deborah Swackhamer, Ph.D.
University of Minnesota
Phone: (612)624-9282
Email: dswack@umn.edu